The Second Phase of the HTS-Led Syrian Transition Will Begin In the Coming Days

On January 22, 2012, a new post on the Shamukh al-Islam Global Jihadi Internet Forum, which at the time was the epicenter of the global jihadi movement online, teased a big announcement from Syria. It included the below banner:

A day later, on January 23, Jabhat al-Nusrah announced itself via its al-Manarah al-Bayda’ Foundation for Media Production, which included an audio message from the leader of the new group Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani (now known by his real name Ahmad al-Shar’a).

A week later, I wrote a short analysis of the video, maybe the first, if not one of the first to look at the group before it became more well-known by the end of 2012. Interesting reading it back now more than a decade later, considering where its successor group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham went and how al-Shar’a is now front and center of the new Syrian caretaker administration compared to the first few years when he would not show his face. Here is the original video release:

Here are notes I took a number of years ago on the content of the video:

• Starts with a recitation of Qur’anic verse 4:75: “And what is [the matter] with you that you fight not in the cause of God and [for] the oppressed among men, women, and children who say, ‘Our Lord, take us out of this city of oppressive people and appoint for us from Yourself a protector and appoint for us from Yourself a helper?’”
• A nashid plays in the background as clips are shown of “mujahidin” activities in different provinces/regions (Idlib, Dara’a, Ghouta, Deir al-Zour):
  • Clips are mostly of fighters gathered for photo ops (waving guns and banners and giving speeches) with some clips of marching and other activities
  • Later on, clips include attacks by the Assad regime on peaceful protestors, gruesome photos of civilian casualties (allegedly caused by the U.S.), and other human rights abuses
• Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani then begins his speech by quoting Qur’anic verse 22:39: “Permission [to fight] has been given to those who are being fought, because they were wronged. And indeed, God is competent to give them victory.”
• Jawlani emphasizes the grave injustices Assad has dealt against the people of al-Sham: “killing children, humiliating elders,” etc:
  • In response to these injustices, “we” decided to “return home” at the outset of the revolution, to defend the people against Assad (presumably a reference to Jawlani and others leaving the Islamic State of Iraq to fight in Syria)
• Jawlani says that Muslims will no longer be oppressed by tawaghit (tyrants/idols) and that they will now rise up and assert their rightful place:
  • To achieve this goal, Jawlani announces the formation of the Jabhat al-Nusrah, in order to “return God’s authority to the Earth and take revenge for the violated chastity and bloodshed, and bring a smile to children and widows.”
• He calls on the people of al-Sham to join Jubhat al-Nusrah, and says that Assad will not be overthrown without the “strength of God and the strength of guns:”
  • “We ask every noble person to have a weapon to protect himself, even by selling his furniture.”
• He notes that many campaigns have been waged in al-Sham, and that listeners should not be eager to join every cause:
  • In particular, the United States has been engaged in an anti-Ba’athist campaign, but it would be a mistake to join with the oppressors of Muslims even if they have a common cause in this area.
  • Jawlani also criticizes Turkey, for its role as an ally of the U.S., and its false pretenses to serving the Muslim community as a whole.
  • Jawlani then cites a portion of Qur’anic verse 2:120: “The Jews will never be pleased with you, nor will the Christians, unless you follow their faith.”
• He criticizes the role of the Arab League and international observers, which gave “another chance for the Syrian regime” when it was not deserved
• He also criticizes the Iranian regime for its work to restore the Persian empire/”Safavid project” in Syria.
• Despite these many interlopers who have conspired to deny the Syrian people their greatness, they can still reclaim it by returning to their Muslim roots and reuniting as a single umma (Muslim nation):
  • Returning to the “heritage of Islam” is the only way to ensure that victory leads from “injustice to justice” instead of from one form of oppression to another.
• He then prays for martyrs, prisoners, and everyone facing injustice and suffering:
  • He vows to defend the last group.
• The speech ends, and the video cuts to a group of armed, masked fighters as one reads a short speech, vowing victory and criticizing Assad.
• A brief clip shows military training, then another group of masked fighters delivering a short speech:
  • He emphasizes the same themes – victory over the tawaghit in defense of the Muslim umma, etc.
• More clips of gunfire, armed fighters with flags, and other scenes emphasizing the group’s military capabilities.
• A final armed speaker waves a gun and directly addresses Assad, vowing that Jabhat al-Nusrah will defeat him.

Compare the geopolitical aspects of this speech from 2012 with how al-Shar’a and the new Syrian caretaker government has related to or spoke about the United States, Turkey, Arab League, and Israel since the fall of the regime. Of course, there is still enmity toward Iran due to its role in helping the Assad regime remain in power for all those years.

Regarding Turkey, it has become the country most engaged with the new Syrian administration on the future of the country. As of January 22, 2025, Turkey already has had 47 engagements/meetings with the new Syrian caretaker government throughout Syria and in Turkey. The second highest country is Saudi Arabia with only 17 in comparison.

All of this shows that besides Iran, all of the actors called out in al-Shar’a’s original message as al-Jawlani thirteen years ago are now viewed as either partners, potential allies, or at the very least hoping to at least hold a cold peace. As I have been saying for a while now, it is important to continue to scrutinize what the Syrian caretaker government is saying in comparison with what it is actually doing. In part due to its past history. But it’s changed words over the past 8.5 years since its break from al-Qaeda and even more so in the past almost two months since Hayat Tahrir al-Sham started its offensive against the Assad regime has aligned with its subsequent actions. Of course, it could change. But for now, there has not been much discrepancy, which will hopefully continue. Either way, the transformation we have seen over the past thirteen years is unprecedented and neither the Islamic State nor al-Qaeda would talk about or meet with the actors discussed above over the past month due to ideological aversions.